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21. January, 2026

Long-term EUA price forecast: Lower emissions, lower prices

European Carbon
EU ETS Team

Veyt forecasts the price of European emission allowances to rise just above EUR 400/t by 2040, down significantly from the September update. This reflects our revised expectation that emissions will be slightly lower through the 2026-2034 period. Less covered emissions will delay the timeline for the release of allowances from the Market Stability Reserve, easing prices in 2040 compared to our previous expectations.

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Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.

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Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates

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